Diesel cover at Pemba runs to six days, and the metical holds its rate.

A mine or generator running diesel in northern Mozambique is working with a thinner buffer than one supplied through the south. The national energy regulator's fortnightly bulletin, dated 16 October 2025, puts diesel stocks at the Pemba import terminal at six days of cover and at Beira at eight, measured as at 13 October. Maputo held sixteen days and Nacala eighteen.

The bulletin puts the next diesel replenishment at Maputo in a delivery window of 26 to 30 October, with petrol and jet fuel drawn from an earlier window that month. It also says availability at service stations could improve significantly once parcels sitting in "financial holding" are regularised.

Cooking gas cover is similarly uneven across the same network: roughly a fortnight at Beira and at Pemba, a month at Maputo, and more than two months at Mocuba, with 2,450 tonnes due to discharge at Maputo against late September and mid October laycans.

On fuel cost, Brent averaged US$64.25 a barrel across the fortnight, moving between US$61.91 on 15 October and US$66.25 on 8 October. The regulator separately records the exchange rate holding at 64.54 meticais to the US dollar, the currency in which fuel import invoices are settled, and treats that stability as what makes the domestic market predictable.

Assessment: with the currency steady, the short run variable in an energy buyer's landed fuel cost is security of supply at the terminal that serves them, not the rate applied to the invoice.

That makes the question a terminal by terminal one rather than a national one. The implication is that buyers taking diesel through Beira or Pemba are pricing a shorter runway than those supplied through Maputo or Nacala, and the next fortnightly bulletin, not this one, is where any narrowing of that gap would appear.