Eskom reports spare capacity above demand, and a 2027 date for ending load reduction.

A large power user planning its winter load now has the utility's own figure for how much generating capacity sits above demand: roughly 6 933MW, in a performance statement dated Friday 13 November 2026.

The statement puts the energy availability factor, the share of fleet capacity actually fit to generate, at 68.2% for the financial year from 1 April to 12 November 2026, against 63.43% a year earlier. Average unplanned outages have fallen over three years from 16 167MW to 9 068MW. In the week to 12 November, however, availability sat below the equivalent week last year, 69.16% against 70.15%, while planned maintenance was heavier, 13.52% of capacity against 10.80%.

Reliance on diesel has fallen alongside that. Spending on it reached R1.27 billion in the financial year to date, down from R6.07 billion in the comparable period, with the open-cycle turbines running at a load factor of 0.90% against an annual target of 3%. For the evening of the statement, Eskom forecast a peak of 22 064MW against 24 369MW available excluding gas.

Load reduction, the targeted curtailment Eskom applies where illegal connections and meter tampering damage the network, is a separate instrument from load shedding. It is now absent from seven of the nine provinces, the affected footprint has dropped by 94% to 102 551 customers, and the stated aim is to end it by March 2027. National load shedding, meanwhile, has been absent for 546 days in a row, counted from 16 May 2025.

Read together, an annual average and a single week's figure describe different things for a buyer whose exposure sits in the evening and in winter, and a system-wide margin is not a commitment at any one connection point.

For large power users, the reported headroom is an argument for planning additional load rather than a firm guarantee at your own intake on a cold evening. It is worth asking your supplier how a system margin of that size translates into firm capacity at your site during the heaviest maintenance weeks, and checking what your supply agreement says about curtailment and interruption pricing at peak. The March 2027 target is the date to watch for the network-side work in your area.