Eskom's weekly update puts available capacity 7 235MW above demand.

For a large power user budgeting for next winter, there is now a figure for the national reserve margin: available generation capacity exceeds demand by 7 235MW.

The figure comes from Eskom's weekly power system update of 30 October 2026. For the financial year to 29 October, the energy availability factor stands at 68.15 per cent, against 62.96 per cent over the same months last year, which the utility calls its best year-to-date reading in six years. The seven days to 29 October were weaker than the equivalent week a year ago, at 69.99 per cent against 71.19 per cent.

Behind the headroom sits the outage picture. Unplanned outages took 18.92 per cent of capacity over the year to date, 6.33 per cent less than last year, and the three-year average has come down by 7 057MW, from 16 139MW to 9 082MW. Planned maintenance went the other way, averaging 6 077MW, or 12.77 per cent of capacity, against 11.32 per cent a year earlier. Read together, more of the fleet is out by choice rather than by breakdown, which is the condition under which grid reliability holds through a cold evening peak.

Diesel use points the same way. Spending on the open-cycle gas turbines reached R1.26 billion for the year to date, R4.81 billion below the R6.07 billion of a year earlier, with those turbines running at a load factor of 0.95 per cent against a 3 per cent annual target and unused in the past week. Load shedding has now been absent for 532 days in a row, counted from 16 May 2025.

For the coming local government elections, the utility says 24-hour network monitoring will be intensified and response prioritised in areas supporting electoral activity, backing the Independent Electoral Commission. Its forecast for that evening's peak was 23 270MW against 25 756MW available before gas, and the next update is due on 6 November 2026.

For large power users, a national reserve margin is not a commitment at your own point of supply, and the distance between the two is where a firm obligation either exists or does not. It is worth asking your supplier what demand it will hold for your site through the election period, and checking what notice your supply agreement requires before curtailment.