Every energy plan in heavy industry across South Africa and the Southern African Power Pool rests on one quiet assumption: how much of the coal fleet will actually be available to generate. Not how much is installed. How much shows up.
There is a measured answer. The amaBhungane station level record, compiled from the power stations themselves, puts the coal fleet's energy availability at 55 per cent in 2023, 59 per cent in 2024 and 58 per cent in 2025. Energy availability factor is a plain idea wearing a technical name: of all the electricity the fleet could have produced, the share it was actually able to produce. In round terms, for every ten units the fleet could supply at full health, between five and a half and six turned up.
That number matters to buyers more than almost any other, because in our model of the new wholesale market, coal plant is what sets the price when the system is working normally. The fleet's availability decides how tight the system runs, and how tight the system runs decides what you pay. A plan built on the fleet recovering to some higher availability is built on hope. The record is measured ground; assumptions are not. Our model carries that record forward as a cautious path with room for recovery, an estimate and disclosed as one; the record itself is the measured part.
Anchoring on the record changes three decisions.
First, firmness. When you contract for firm power, or weigh backup and self supply, size the need against 55, 59 and 58, not against nameplate capacity or a recovery target. The gap between those numbers is the gap your operations fall into.
Second, timing. If a decision in your business is waiting for the grid to improve, ask what in the measured record supports the wait. Three years of data now exist. Let them, not the announcements, set your clock.
Third, interrogation. Every electricity forecast you are shown has an availability assumption buried in it. Ask one question: what availability does this assume, and how far is that from 55, 59 and 58? A seller who cannot answer is selling you decoration.
The record is public, measured and recent. It is firm ground an energy buyer already has. Build there.
Basis
The availability figures are measured values from the amaBhungane station level record, a published compilation of power station data. The claim that coal plant sets the price when the system is working normally comes from Oshili's market model and carries the model's indicative grade, fit to frame decisions with its caveats stated, not a settled measurement. The forward path the model carries is an estimate and is labelled as one above.
Oshili Power publishes market analysis for energy intensive buyers, mines, heavy industry and their advisers across South Africa and the Southern African Power Pool, grounded in its working model of the South African Wholesale Electricity Market. The model prices the market's rules as they are written, holds the unresolved design questions open as separately priced worlds, is tested against measured market records, and is intended in time to answer a buyer's questions anywhere on the South African grid. Questions beyond the published analysis are welcome through the contact form on the Oshili Power website.